The Australian share market concluded the opening week of 2024 on a subdued note, surrendering recent gains as investors recalibrated their outlook on anticipated interest rate adjustments for the year. The decision-making atmosphere was further intensified by the anticipation of crucial data releases scheduled for the upcoming week. Delve into the day's developments in our comprehensive live blog; however, it's essential to note that the insights shared herein are not intended as investment advice.
Authored by Kate Ainsworth (Figures updated at 5:10 pm AEDT), the live updates on major ASX indices, contributed by Nadia Daly, unfold a nuanced picture. The ASX 200 edged slightly lower by 0.07%, settling at 7,489 points, while the All Ords experienced a marginal dip of 0.16%, concluding at 7,718 points. Mining stocks bore the brunt of almost a three-week low, impacted by weakening iron ore prices. Investor caution loomed large as the market awaits a pivotal national inflation report for November, slated for release next week. This report holds the key to deciphering potential monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the months ahead.
As the day's coverage by Kate Ainsworth draws to a close, a noteworthy international development unfolds. European retail giant Carrefour makes a bold move, opting to discontinue the sale of PepsiCo products in its stores across France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium. This decision, effective immediately, stems from the perceived exorbitant costs associated with these items. Shelves dedicated to PepsiCo products, including popular brands like Pepsi, Lay's potato chips, Doritos, and Gatorade, will prominently display signs explaining the cessation due to "unacceptable price increases," as conveyed by a spokesperson for the French supermarket giant.
The ripple effect is substantial, impacting over 9,000 stores across the four European nations, which represents roughly two-thirds of Carrefour's global footprint of 14,348 stores. PepsiCo had previously outlined plans for "modest" price hikes in 2024, buoyed by sustained demand despite increased prices. In contrast, Carrefour has been actively challenging major consumer product and food companies on pricing, even initiating a "shrinkflation" campaign by affixing warnings on products that have diminished in size while costing more. France, in its commitment to regulating the retail sector, compels supermarkets to annually negotiate prices with food and drink companies, aiming to safeguard its farm industry. In a unique move, the government has urged retailers and suppliers to expedite their annual negotiations, concluding them in January, two months ahead of schedule, in an effort to curb inflation. As we wrap up today's insights, the market awaits the unfolding dynamics in the coming week, poised on the precipice of economic shifts and policy cues. Wishing you a great weekend ahead.
In the ever-evolving landscape of price negotiations exacerbated by inflation, numerous grocery retailers across several European countries have taken a decisive stance, halting orders from various firms. This strategic maneuver adds complexity to negotiations, with Carrefour, a prominent player, engaging in discussions for months. PepsiCo, one of the affected companies, expressed a commitment to continued negotiations in good faith to ensure the availability of its products.
The repercussions of these decisions are palpable among consumers. In response to Carrefour's move, a shopper, Edith Carpentier, shared her perspective with Reuters, expressing little surprise at the decision. She anticipates an abundance of products left on the shelves due to escalating prices, suggesting a potential shift in consumer behavior towards more cost-conscious choices.
Shifting gears to space exploration, NASA has unveiled plans for the first U.S. Moon landing since the conclusion of the Apollo program in 1972. Pittsburgh's Astrobotic Technology is set to take the lead with a scheduled lift-off on Monday, followed by Houston's Intuitive Machines in mid-February, hitching a flight with SpaceX. The announcement marks a significant milestone in private companies contributing to lunar exploration.
In the realm of biotechnology and finance, Telix Pharmaceuticals has witnessed a remarkable surge in trade today following its disclosure of planning an initial public offering (IPO) in the U.S. and a listing on the Nasdaq. The disclosure, absent specifics on the number of American Depository Shares and the listing timeline, has propelled Telix's shares to a three-week high. The company remains cautious, stating, "There can be no assurance as to the occurrence, timing, pricing and/or completion of such an offering or listing.
Meanwhile, oil prices, exhibiting volatility throughout the week, experienced a decline on Thursday. Softening demand in the U.S. and escalating tensions in the Middle East and North Africa contributed to the fluctuation. Gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. witnessed an unprecedented rise, marking the most significant increase in a week since May 1993, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The surge amounted to 10.9 million barrels in the week ending December 29, reaching a total of 237 million barrels. The intricacies of global markets continue to unfold, shaping the narrative for industries ranging from retail to space exploration and energy.
In a week marked by surging energy complexities, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals that the current gasoline stockpile stands as the second-highest weekly record, adding to the intricacies of global fuel markets. The staggering 10.9 million barrel increase in gasoline reserves overshadows an unexpected 5.5 million barrel drawdown in crude oil stocks, according to EIA data. However, this apparent contradiction is elucidated by shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, redirecting refiners and crude oil buyers to the United States due to the situation.
Bob Yawger, Director of Energy Futures at Mizuho, attributes the altered crude oil stock trajectory to the Red Sea turmoil, explaining how shipping concerns have compelled industry players to opt for the U.S. route instead of navigating around the Horn of Africa. The heightened shipping apprehensions followed the targeting of a container ship bound for Israel by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebel group, amplifying geopolitical tensions in the region.
As the energy session concludes, Brent crude finds itself trading under $78 per barrel, reflecting the multifaceted impact of global events on oil prices. For a deeper exploration of these developments, a comprehensive finance report from Daniel Ziffer is available for review.
In another corner of the corporate arena, Elon Musk, the enigmatic billionaire at the helm of Tesla, SpaceX, and X (formerly known as Twitter), finds himself in the spotlight once again. SpaceX, his rocket company, has initiated legal action against a U.S. labor agency that accused it of terminating employees critical of Musk. In 2022, some SpaceX employees expressed concerns about the workplace and criticized Musk's social media comments in a letter to executives. US officials at the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) subsequently claimed that eight of those employees were fired, prompting SpaceX to counter with a lawsuit alleging the NLRB's "unconstitutional structure" and "unlawful" actions. The case is expected to reach an administrative judge in early March unless a settlement is reached.
Amidst these global energy and corporate dynamics, regulatory measures are being extended to rein in short-term lenders, underscoring the ongoing efforts to protect vulnerable Australians in the financial sphere. The intricate dance of geopolitical events, corporate maneuvers, and regulatory responses continues to shape the narrative of a world navigating through complex economic currents.
In a continued effort to shield vulnerable consumers from predatory lending practices, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has extended its product intervention orders, initially implemented in July 2022. These orders prohibit the provision of short-term credit and continuing credit contracts, including payday loans, characterized by exorbitant fees imposed on retail clients. The extension aims to fortify the safeguarding of vulnerable Australians who find themselves in financial distress, seeking loans for essential living expenses.
ASIC's concern stems from the realization that the target market for these credit contracts often comprises individuals facing financial difficulties, denied regulated credit, and consequently subjected to substantial fees associated with the products. Sarah Court, ASIC deputy chair, emphasized the ongoing commitment to addressing predatory lending practices and affirmed that intervening against such conduct remains a top priority for the commission.
These product intervention orders are slated to remain in effect until either revoked or until October 1, 2032. By extending these measures, ASIC strives to maintain a robust defense against the prevalence of high-cost lending products in the market.
Shifting focus to the financial landscape, Australian shares have experienced incremental gains today, although they are poised to conclude their worst week since late October. The ASX200 inched up by 0.1% to 7,501 points, with the benchmark registering a 1.2% decline for the week, following five consecutive weeks of gains. As the market eagerly anticipates inflation data next week, analysts project its pivotal role in influencing the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decisions for the upcoming year.
Speculation abounds regarding the RBA's potential easing of monetary policy as early as May or June, even as it maintains a tightening "bias." Globally, expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year have tempered. Examining ASX sectors, banks led Friday's gains, recording a 0.6% increase. However, this positive performance was juxtaposed against the sector's first weekly decline since mid-November. The Commonwealth Bank saw a 1.1% rise, while Westpac climbed 0.3%. Gold stocks, rebounding after four consecutive sessions of decline, gained 0.8% as bullion prices saw overnight recovery. Noteworthy among them, Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining rose by 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively, contributing to the day's market dynamics.
In a persistent downturn, technology firms logged their third consecutive session drop, with a 1.3% decline, positioning them for their bleakest week since mid-October. This decline, scrutinized by market observers, raises questions about the sector's resilience amid current market dynamics.
Meanwhile, Microsoft, a tech giant synonymous with transformative innovations, has embarked on a significant redesign of its keyboards, marking the most substantial change in three decades. The new design introduces an artificial intelligence (AI) key, a landmark shift following the introduction of the Windows key in 1994. Positioned between the space bar and alt key, this AI key grants users access to Copilot, Microsoft's AI tool, exclusively on new Windows 11 PCs. The tech company's executive vice-president hails this as a "transformative" moment, showcasing Microsoft's commitment to pushing the boundaries of technological interfaces. Microsoft's strategic investment in Open AI, the driving force behind Copilot's capabilities, underscores its dedication to advancing AI technologies.
Shifting focus to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), Core Lithium emerges as one of the day's worst-performing stocks. The mining company's decision to suspend operations at its Northern Territory mine takes center stage. Pressured by the ongoing decline in lithium prices, Core Lithium has opted for a temporary halt in mining activities at the Grants open pit in its Finniss operation. Opened in 2022, the mine's suspension aligns with a more than 85% drop in the price of spodumene concentrate, the mineral containing lithium, over the past year, with a 50% decrease since October 2023. The company emphasizes its commitment to prudently managing cash reserves, continuing ore stockpile processing during the suspension, and focusing on optimizing its position for future mining operations when market conditions improve. Despite the difficult decision impacting employees, contractors, and local businesses, Core Lithium underscores its dedication to recommencing mining activities and advancing the BP33 mine study when the market rebounds.
As market dynamics continue to evolve, the juxtaposition of technological slumps and groundbreaking innovations, alongside the challenges faced by resource-centric industries, underscores the multifaceted nature of today's economic landscape.
Fitness equipment manufacturer Peloton, renowned for its at-home stationary bicycles, treadmills, and indoor rowing machines, has entered into a groundbreaking partnership with social media powerhouse TikTok. The collaboration aims to broaden the accessibility of Peloton's workout content beyond its dedicated equipment, marking a pivotal move in the company's ongoing rebranding efforts. The partnership allows Peloton to showcase its exclusive workout content on TikTok, presenting a dedicated hub under the hashtag #TikTokFitness Powered by Peloton.
Peloton's foray into TikTok comes on the heels of a strategic review initiated last year, coupled with the suspension of work on the BP33 project. This alliance not only diversifies Peloton's content reach but also represents the first instance where the company has joined forces with another platform to host its exclusive workout sessions. The move seems strategic as Peloton endeavors to adapt to changing market dynamics and appeal to a broader audience.
This strategic shift resonated positively in the financial realm, reflected in a significant surge in Peloton's shares during Wall Street trade, witnessing a gain of 13.9%. This move aligns with Peloton's efforts to dissociate its workout content from exclusive reliance on Peloton equipment, a shift that may prove pivotal in reshaping its market positioning.
Switching gears to the Australian share market, it opened with a marginal uptick, gaining 0.1% to reach 7,503 points at 10:30 am AEDT. Across various sectors, the market displays a mixed picture, with healthcare, financials, industrials, real estate, and basic materials experiencing positive momentum. Conversely, consumer cyclicals, utilities, energy, technology, and academic and educational services have seen early declines. Notably, Magellan Financial emerges as a top performer, while Core Lithium faces significant losses following the announcement of the suspension of operations at its Northern Territory mine.
Meanwhile, tech titan Apple faces challenges at the start of 2024, hitting an eight-week low after receiving its second rating downgrade within the week. The downgrades are attributed to concerns over iPhone demand, reflecting the ongoing volatility in the tech giant's performance amid changing market sentiments.
As the market landscape continues to evolve, Peloton's strategic partnership and the varied trajectories of companies like Apple and Core Lithium underscore the dynamic nature of industries navigating through market shifts and strategic transformations.
Apple encountered a challenging start to the year as Piper Sandler issued a downgrade, sending Apple shares down by 1.4% to $181.60 and resulting in a nearly $170 billion decline in market value. Despite this setback, Apple retains its position as the most valuable company globally, boasting a market capitalization exceeding $2.8 trillion. This downgrade follows closely on the heels of a similar move by Barclays just two days prior.
Harsh Kumar, lead analyst at Piper Sandler, cited concerns about handset inventories entering the first half of 2024 and a perceived peak in unit sales growth rates. Additionally, a deteriorating macro environment in China and a resurgent Huawei pose challenges for Apple. The ongoing patent dispute related to Apple Watches and the strength of the US dollar further add headwinds to Apple's prospects.
In response to these challenges, Apple has been grappling with weakened demand in China, attributed to constrained consumer spending and the resurgence of Huawei. The complex market dynamics highlight the multifaceted pressures faced by one of the tech industry's giants.
Shifting focus to Wall Street, trade concluded with the Dow Jones posting gains on Thursday, driven by positive performance in financial stocks and encouraging jobs data. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq experienced a third consecutive loss for the year, sinking by 0.6% to 14,510 points. The Dow Jones closed slightly higher at 37,440 points, while the S&P 500 dipped by 0.3% to 4,688 points. Financials emerged as one of the best-performing sectors for the S&P 500, with Allstate leading the way after receiving an "overweight" rating upgrade from Morgan Stanley.
The energy sector of the S&P faced a significant decline during trade due to a substantial US fuel inventory build, contributing to a drop in crude prices. The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to see robust performances from banks, with positive analyst reports for JPMorgan Chase & Co and Truist Financial Group.
Overnight in Europe, inflation figures for Germany and France were released, aligning with economists' expectations. France reported annual inflation of 4.1% in December, up from 3.9% in November, driven primarily by increases in energy and services prices over the preceding 12 months.
These diverse market movements underscore the intricate challenges faced by global companies and financial markets, navigating uncertainties and influencing factors that span from consumer demand to geopolitical disputes.
Asterès analyst Sylvain Bersinger highlights the intricate dynamics shaping the global economic landscape, emphasizing the divergence in world oil prices and electricity costs compared to the previous year. While oil prices remain relatively stable, electricity costs have surged, and fuel rebates have been withdrawn, contributing to the nuanced inflationary pressures. Bersinger anticipates a continued rise in energy prices in the coming years but underscores the more concerning trend of inflation in services, which constitute a substantial portion of the consumer price index.
The potential impact of wage increases is also scrutinized, with signs that rising wages are translating into higher prices. Food price growth moderated to 7.1% year-on-year in December, down from 7.7% in November, offering a contrasting trend amid broader inflationary concerns.
Shifting focus to Germany, where December inflation rose to 3.8%, Bersinger notes the potential influence on the European Central Bank's interest rate decisions. While this uptick in inflation could temporarily halt the downward trend in the country, core inflation dipped to 3.5% in December, adding complexity to the inflationary narrative.
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, suggests that the re-acceleration of inflation in Germany reinforces the ECB's cautious approach, advocating for a measured stance without hastily implementing rate cut decisions.
As the broader Eurozone awaits inflation data, projected to rise to 3.0% in December from 2.4% in November, the global economic landscape remains multifaceted. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, optimism prevails as strong private US jobs data delays expectations of interest rate cuts, sparking a positive session to potentially mark the first positive day of 2024. The Dow Jones responds positively to the upbeat job numbers, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq register slight declines.
The intricate dance of economic indicators, energy prices, inflation trends, and global market sentiments underscores the complexity facing businesses, policymakers, and investors in the ongoing economic narrative.
The current state of the US economy finds itself in a delicate phase, teetering on a balance that investors aim to maintain—solid enough to preserve job gains yet not running too hot. In essence, a Goldilocks scenario, albeit a metaphor yet to be fully caffeinated into coherence.
Across the Atlantic in Europe, shares have rebounded from three-week lows, propelled by gains in banks and utilities. However, not all sectors received favorable news, as the retail sector faced a setback with a substantial 23% drop in JD Sports' shares after the company revised down its full-year profit forecasts. This downturn reverberated through the market, affecting Adidas and Puma stocks, which slid by 3% and 5.9%, respectively.
As these global market dynamics unfold, the impact on the local front is yet to be revealed. Futures suggest a modest upturn for the ASX, set to open slightly higher on Friday, buoyed by the positive momentum experienced on Wall Street. As the day unfolds, fueled by coffee and market insights, observers await how these delicate economic phases and market shifts will shape the trajectory of businesses and investment landscapes.
In conclusion, the global economic landscape remains in a delicate balance, characterized by nuanced phases and market dynamics. The US economy faces the challenge of maintaining stability while avoiding overheating, reminiscent of a Goldilocks scenario. Meanwhile, in Europe, shares rebounded after recent lows, with banks and utilities leading the charge. However, the retail sector experienced a setback due to JD Sports' lowered profit forecasts, impacting Adidas and Puma stocks.
Looking ahead, the local front, particularly the ASX, is poised for a slightly higher opening on Friday, reflecting the positive momentum from Wall Street. As the day unfolds, fueled by both coffee and market insights, the intricate dance of economic indicators and global market sentiments continues to shape the narrative for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike.